The Quarterly Theory in Trading: A Critical Examination
The quarterly theory in trading proposes that market prices exhibit cyclical behavior, with each cycle divisible into four distinct quarters. This theory is applied across various timeframes, from daily sessions to yearly cycles. Proponents believe these quarters offer insights into potential price movements and trading opportunities. Core Tenets of the Quarterly Theory Market Cyclicity: Prices are thought to move in a structured, repetitive manner, with each cycle containing four phases. Time Segmentation: Cycles are divided into quarters, with specific characteristics associated with each. Common interpretations include: Accumulation (Q1): Low volatility, potential for price build-up. Manipulation (Q2): Increased volatility, possible trend formation. Distribution (Q3): Profit-taking, potential for price retracement. Reversal/Continuation (Q4): Decisive move confirming or reversing the trend. Fractal Application: The theory suggests this cyclical pattern applies across differen...